The “Brain Trust” Behind Iran’s New President - Part 2

 Part 1

Despite alienating principlists and reformists, Barzegar suggests that CSR’s reputation for pragmatism gave Rouhani the “upper hand” over rivals on the campaign trail, demonstrating his ability to handle “insecurity and crisis.” Indeed, Asgari believes that Rouhani’s shrewd management of the center demonstrates a sense of ideological openness and flexibility that he will serve him well as president. “He will put together a practical and transfactional government, the kind that [Rafsanjani] put together.” But Rouhani’s rumored cabinet, led by former UN envoy Mohammed Jarad Zarif as Foreign Minister, Norbakht as Minister of Economic Affairs, and Younesi in his old post as Intelligence Minister, more closely resembles a collegial cocktail party than a team of rivals.

Wary of Ahmadinejad’s tendency of leading with his heart, Rouhani wants to keep expert advisors close, with professionalism as his modus operandi. In this sense, he resembles Rafsanjani with his cabinet of technocrats.

Outside Iran Western counterparts admired Rouhani’s temperament as Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator. “He can see the other person’s point of view and doesn’t express himself in an antagonistic way.” Richard Dalton, the former British ambassador to Iran, remembers from his dealings with Rouhani.

There is ample room for creativity in economic policy, where the supreme leader affords the president greater leeway. Adhering to precedent, Norbakht, if appointed Minister of Economic Affairs, will likely spearhead a campaign of privatization and bond sales. Attracting investment to improve Iran’s oil output, which fell to a 25-year low in June, will also be a key item on the minister’s agenda. At CSR, Norbakht advocated  low income tax rates and high educational standards to attract investment, warning that potential investors could be scared off by Iran’s stringent job security legislation, union growth, and political instability. This advice may soon find its way to Rouhani’s ear.

To voters, who elected the moderate cleric in a rout, all of this sounds promising on paper. But there are no silver bullets for fixing the myriad problems engulfing Iranian society. The nuclear issue, economic sanctions, and the Arab Spring have brought foreign policy debates to the fore. For Rouhani, restoring economic growth and thereby winning re-election hangs in no small part on his ability to untangle the messy foreign policy he inherits from Ahmadinejad. With global opinion of Iran at an all-time low, according to a June poll from Pew’s Global Attitudes project, that will be a difficult task, to say the least.

For now, accommodation appears to be the watchword. Easing sanctions and removing foreign threats will be early priorities of Rouhani’s administration. Though Rouhani has publicly conveyed that nuclear weapons have “no role” in Iranian foreign policy, describing the country’s international position as politically and economically untenable, in the delicate negotiations with the P5+1, he will have to take his direction from the supreme leader.

Iran’s new role in the complex Persian Gulf region is even more difficult to decipher. Vaezi’s writings envisage a tamer, friendlier Iran, and embrace a doctrinaire approach abandoned by Ahmadinejad, including “constructive foreign policy” under the Expediency Council’s 20-year vision plan. Rouhani will likely direct the rumored Foreign Minister Zarif to begin engaging major players, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, “from the position of strength,” Barzegar notes. This again would mirror Rafsanjani’s crusade as president to improve ties with neighbors that had been badly damaged by the Islamic Republic and Grand Ayatollah Khomeini’s efforts to export their revolution in the 1980s.

But Rouhani will likely find it difficult to assert Iran’s strength. Even Vaezi acknowledges that “ambiguity” and “transition” define the present global situation, and fears that leadership vacuums on its borders could endanger national security. The seasoned diplomat has emphasized Iran’s role in supporting democratic nation-building in Iraq and Afghanistan, but is less clear about the future of Shia satellites in the region, including Syria’s Bashir al-Assad, who Iran is currently vigorously supporting. To abandon Damascus as well as other Shi’a populations in the region—such as those in Bahrain and Yemen— would resign any hope of regional leadership. In courting the Sunni regimes in the region, Iran therefore faces a delicate balancing act.

Given his track record for keeping friends close, CSR, Rouhani’s “factory of ideas,” provides a telling blueprint for what the new government policies will probably look like. Like his ally Rafsanjani did when assuming the presidency in 1989, Rouhani inherits an isolated Iran in desperate need of re-imagining. He will be aided by his “advantage of knowing how to simultaneously deal with domestic politics and international politics,” as Barzegar argues. But to succeed, he will need to see beyond Tehran’s rhetoric, and come to terms with the harsh realities Iran faces.

Andrew Detsch is an editorial assistant at The Diplomat.

Source: http://tinyurl.com/n5afyg2